Bubble Pressure
Public gauges of possible market bubbles, built from free data and updated every day. Each one shows its model, its backtest and its misses, and logs every forecast so it can be scored against what actually happens.
Baskets
AI stocks: AI Bubble Watch
A selected basket of listed companies with exposure to AI: daily prices, SEC filings, an experimental bubble model and a burst probability.
–Bubble Pressure, 0–100
–below the basket’s high
–chance of a 50% fall within 12 months
More baskets
The same method will be applied to other markets. A basket is published only once its model, backtest and data sources hold up.
How each gauge keeps itself honest
- Every forecast is logged and never edited. The log is hash-chained, so a rewritten entry would show.
- Forecasts are scored. Burst probabilities are graded with a Brier score once their horizon passes.
- The backtest is published, weak results included. Where the model has missed, the page says so.
- Corrections are listed on each page, with dates.
- The data is free to download as JSON, and the sources are named with their observation dates.
- No paywall and no advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. See the terms and disclaimer.